Memprediksi Dampak Anomali Cuaca Ekstrem terhadap Hasil Panen Padi Menggunakan Model Deret Waktu SARIMA

Zaki Mahbub; Alfin Noval Hadi; Reihan Afandi; Muhammad Abdullah Azzam

doi:10.61132/mars.v3i6.1298

Authors

Zaki Mahbub Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera
Alfin Noval Hadi Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera
Reihan Afandi Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera
Muhammad Abdullah Azzam Politeknik Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/mars.v3i6.1298

Keywords:

Climate Change, Extreme Weather, Rice Production, SARIMA, Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

The instability of the climate is becoming increasingly prominent across Southeast Asia, creating uncertainty in agricultural systems that are highly dependent on seasonal weather patterns. Indonesia, where rice remains the primary staple food, is particularly vulnerable to the effects of rising temperatures and rainfall deficits. This study applies the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to predict rice production while incorporating indicators of extreme climate anomalies. Using publicly available datasets, including FAOSTAT production statistics, NOAA rainfall and temperature anomalies, and climate indices from the World Bank, this model was developed following the Box-Jenkins procedure. Among the configurations tested, the SARIMA model (1,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ showed the strongest performance, reflected in a MAPE of 4.62% and low RMSE values. The model indicates that significant El Niño events can reduce annual rice production by 3–7%, while wetter La Niña conditions may support production recovery. These findings highlight the importance of integrating climate-sensitive data into agricultural forecasting. The model presented here could support early warning systems, adaptive farming strategies, and long-term food security planning in Indonesia.

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