Peramalan Time Series terhadap Permintaan Produk Lampu Emergency Kawachi KL-6167 A+
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61132/mars.v4i3.1668Keywords:
Forecasting, Inventory Control, Linear Trend, Mean Squared Error, Quadratic TrendAbstract
This study aims to analyze demand patterns and determine the most accurate forecasting method for the Kawachi KL 6167 A+ Emergency Lamp product to support inventory control decision-making. The data used in this study consist of product demand over 12 periods, showing an increasing trend with slight fluctuations in certain periods. The forecasting methods applied in this research include the Linear Trend Method, Quadratic Trend Method, and Moving Average (MA), while forecasting accuracy was evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE). The results indicate that the linear trend method provides a more suitable forecasting model compared to the quadratic trend method. The MSE value of the linear method is 69.31, whereas the quadratic method produces an MSE of 81.50, indicating that the linear method is more accurate due to its lower forecasting error. In addition, a 3-period Moving Average (MA) method was applied to forecast demand from period 13 to period 24. The forecasting results show that demand tends to stabilize within the range of 276–277 units, with the forecast for period 24 reaching 276.66 units, rounded to 277 units. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that the demand pattern for the Kawachi KL 6167 A+ Emergency Lamp demonstrates a relatively stable upward trend, making the linear trend method the most appropriate forecasting approach for predicting future demand. These forecasting results are expected to serve as a reference for companies in optimizing inventory planning to minimize the risks of stock shortages and overstocking.
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