Optimasi Kurva Daya Turbin Angin Menggunakan Model Logistic Berbasis Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

Abstract

Accurate wind turbine power curve modeling plays a crucial role in performance evaluation, energy yield estimation, and data-driven control strategies. However, actual power curves often exhibit non-linear behavior influenced by atmospheric variability, measurement noise, and SCADA anomalies, making conventional modeling approaches less effective. This study proposes an optimized logistic power curve model whose parameters are tuned using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to improve predictive accuracy. The analysis uses the Wind Turbine SCADA Dataset from Kaggle, which undergoes extensive preprocessing including physical rule filtering, outlier detection with the Interquartile Range (IQR) method, anomaly removal, and smoothing of the power signal. A three-parameter logistic model is selected due to its ability to capture the typical S-shaped relationship between wind speed and power output. PSO is applied to identify optimal model parameters by minimizing the Mean Squared Error (MSE), utilizing 40 particles over 200 iterations. The optimized model achieves strong predictive performance with RMSE of 404.09, MAE of 179.96, and R² of 0.904 on the test set, indicating that more than 90% of the variability in actual power can be explained by wind speed. Residual analysis reveals heteroscedastic patterns and slight overestimation in mid-range wind speeds, yet overall model consistency remains high. Comparative evaluation against Linear Regression, Random Forest, and logistic modeling using curve_fit shows that the Logistic–PSO approach provides the most accurate and stable predictions. These findings demonstrate that combining logistic modeling with PSO offers an effective and robust method for data-driven wind turbine power curve optimization.