Analisis Peramalan Permintaan dalam Memaksimalkan Manajemen Rantai Pasok Menggunakan Metode Moving Average

Aladdin Hidayatullah Jurjani; Amin Yazid Achmad; Heru Andi Pratama; Aloysius Tommy Hendrawan

doi:10.61132/mars.v2i4.222

Authors

Aladdin Hidayatullah Jurjani Universitas PGRI Madiun
Amin Yazid Achmad Universitas PGRI Madiun
Heru Andi Pratama Universitas PGRI Madiun
Aloysius Tommy Hendrawan Universitas PGRI Madiun

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/mars.v2i4.222

Keywords:

Demand Forecasting, Supply Chain Management, Weighted Average, Time Series

Abstract

Forecasting demand for screen-printed clothing products at the UMKM "D'mitz Screen Printing" in Sobrah Village, Wungu District, Madiun Regency helps with production control planning to maximize supply chain management for screen-printed clothing products. To predict future product demand, it is very important for UMKM to forecast market demand. Forecasting future demand is very important to avoid sales prediction errors that can cause waste, such as increased production costs due to sales predictions being too large, or stock outs due to sales predictions being too small, which results in customers having to wait longer to get the goods they want. Based on this problem, the UMKM "D'mitz Screen Printing" carried out a demand forecasting analysis for screen printed clothing with the aim of reducing waste and maximizing value. Forecasting demand for screen printed clothing for the next five months using time series analysis and moving average methods. Forecasting results for the period March 2022 to February 2023 show sequential forecasting values of 3266.67; 3300; 3250; 3283.33; 3233.33; 3316.67; 3333.33; 3372.22; 3305.56; and 3272.22. From the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) calculations that have been carried out, the MAE value is 94.44 and the MSE value is 16018.593.

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