Perbandingan Algoritma Backpropagation dan SARIMA dalam Memprediksi Kebutuhan Nasi untuk Penjualan: Studi Kasus: Restoran Grillme Pontianak

Muhammad Khoir Nugraha

doi:10.61132/merkurius.v4i1.1348

Authors

Muhammad Khoir Nugraha Universitas Muhammadiyah Pontianak

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/merkurius.v4i1.1348

Keywords:

Artificial Neural Network, Backpropagation, Prediction, Rice, SARIMA

Abstract

This study aims to design, implement, and compare the performance of the Backpropagation algorithm from Artificial Neural Networks and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model in predicting the optimal daily rice requirement at Grillme Restaurant in Pontianak. The main problem faced by the restaurant is the uncertainty in determining the required daily rice stock, which periodically results in either understocking (shortage) or overstocking (wastage), leading to operational losses. To address this, the study utilizes historical daily rice sales data from January 2023 to April 2025 as the database for training and testing both predictive models. The SARIMA approach is employed to capture time series components (trend and seasonality), while Backpropagation is utilized to model non-linear patterns. Comparative test results indicate that the SARIMA model achieved superior accuracy compared to the Backpropagation model. This is confirmed by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of the SARIMA algorithm being 17.35%, which is lower than the MAPE value of Backpropagation at 19.62%. The MAPE values obtained by both models demonstrate good predictive capability, but it is concluded that SARIMA is more recommended for a more efficient and planned management of rice stock at Grillme Restaurant in Pontianak.

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